Weakened But Dangerous: Iran's Surviving Arsenal Could Threaten US Forces Across The Middle East

Even as Iran grapples with the fallout from last year’s war with Israel and months of anti-government protests, analysts say it retains the capacity to inflict significant damage if the United States launches military strikes. With American forces building up across the Middle East, Tehran faces the possibility of attacks targeting its leadership, military infrastructure and nuclear facilities. Despite its weakened position, Iran has signalled it would respond forcefully if it perceives an existential threat to the Islamic Republic.

Iran is believed to maintain hundreds of missiles capable of reaching Israel, according to Israeli estimates, though many longer-range systems were hit during last year’s 12-day conflict. Its larger stockpile of shorter-range missiles remains largely intact, posing a threat to US bases in Gulf countries and offshore naval forces. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has warned that Iran could target American warships, while Iranian officials have declared that US bases and assets in the region would be considered legitimate targets in the event of an attack.

The strategic Strait of Hormuz remains a key pressure point. Roughly one-fifth of globally traded oil passes through the narrow waterway, and Iran has previously threatened to disrupt shipping there. Iranian forces recently conducted military drills in and around the strait, signalling its vulnerability. Any sustained disruption could send global energy prices soaring and strain economies far beyond the Middle East.

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Iran has demonstrated its willingness to retaliate in the past. After the 2020 killing of a top Iranian general, Tehran launched missiles at a US base in Iraq, and it later targeted a US facility in Qatar during last year’s hostilities. Those strikes caused material damage but no reported fatalities, in part due to advance warnings and missile defence systems. Experts suggest Iran could also activate allied armed groups across the region, though many of its partners have suffered setbacks since the Gaza conflict erupted in October 2023.

US President Donald Trump has warned of severe consequences if Iran does not curb its nuclear activities, and Washington has increased sanctions and military deployments while pursuing diplomacy. The US and Iran are set to hold another round of indirect nuclear talks in Geneva, even as tensions rise. Analysts caution that a broader conflict could draw in regional powers, endanger US allies and destabilise global oil markets, underscoring the high stakes surrounding any potential military escalation.

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