Europe’s Military Is Facing a Personnel Crisis

Europe’s military readiness is under scrutiny as geopolitical tensions rise. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk recently warned lawmakers that Poland’s position could weaken without decisive action, reflecting broader concerns across the continent.

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimates Europe, including the UK, has 1.5 million active-duty personnel, yet many are unfit for combat, and fragmented command structures hinder effectiveness. With Russia fielding 700,000 troops in Ukraine by late 2024, the stakes are high.

NATO, led by a US general and reliant on American logistics, has 100,000 US troops stationed in Europe, with plans to deploy 200,000 more if Russia attacks. Without US support, the Brussels-based Bruegel think tank suggests Europe must boost its capacity by the equivalent of 300,000 US troops—either by increasing numbers or improving coordination. But how?

NATO urges higher troop counts but avoids dictating methods, leaving it to nations to navigate politically sensitive choices like conscription or reserves. Eleven European countries, including Finland and Greece, maintain compulsory service, ranging from two months to 19.

Poland eyes a Swiss-style reserve system, while Belgium’s new defence minister aims to recruit 500 volunteers from 120,000 eligible 18-year-olds. Germany, with 181,174 active personnel, struggles to hit its 203,000 target by 2031, losing 27% of 2023 recruits to boredom and poor conditions.

Smaller nations like Luxembourg, with just 1,000 troops, face unique hurdles—low unemployment and high salaries make military service a tough sell. Conscription, while a potential fix, demands significant investment in staff and infrastructure, and hastily trained recruits can’t match professional soldiers.

As NATO braces for a possible attrition war, Europe must confront these challenges to bolster its defences, balancing public support with the urgent need for manpower. The clock is ticking.