El Nino Set to Become One of Strongest on Record, Experts Warn

El Niño is intensifying rapidly and could develop into one of the strongest such events on record by late 2026, according to climate experts and forecasts cited by global agencies. Significant warming has been observed across the central and eastern tropical Pacific, with substantial heat building below the ocean surface. Atmospheric circulation is also showing patterns associated with a strengthening El Niño, raising concerns about its potential impact on weather conditions across several regions.

Anushman, Director of Water Resources at The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI), said current projections indicate an exceptionally strong El Niño could emerge towards the end of 2026. He cited the latest assessment from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which reportedly puts the probability of a very strong El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter at more than 90 per cent. The assessment also gives a 69 per cent chance that the October-December period could exceed the intensity of the strongest El Niño events recorded previously.

Experts expect the phenomenon to reach its peak around November or December, although its precise strength will become clearer as the event develops. Anushman said El Niño generally reaches peak intensity between November and February. GP Sharma, president of Meteorology and Climate Change at Skymet Weather, said the unusually rapid warming during the summer could make the developing event one of the strongest, or potentially the strongest, on record by late 2026 and into the winter of 2027.

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The developing El Niño could also affect India's weather patterns, particularly during the latter part of the monsoon season. Sharma warned of an increased risk of weaker rainfall during September and October, while changes in the western Pacific could influence storm activity and disrupt monsoon wind patterns over the Bay of Bengal. Beyond India, strong El Niño events can alter rainfall and temperature patterns across large parts of the world, increasing the likelihood of droughts in some regions while bringing heavier rainfall and flooding elsewhere.

The World Meteorological Organization has stressed the importance of using early-warning forecasts to prepare communities and governments for possible impacts. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has also called for early action as the warming Pacific develops against a backdrop of already elevated global temperatures. Climate experts have warned that the combination of El Niño and existing ocean and atmospheric warming could intensify weather extremes, making advance preparation particularly important.

The potential effects vary significantly by region. The Indian subcontinent, Southeast Asia, southern and eastern Australia, southern Central America and northern Europe could face weaker rainfall and longer dry spells, while parts of Africa, North America, South America, southern Europe and Central Asia could experience heavier rainfall, storms or flooding. With the event still developing, experts say monitoring and early preparation will be crucial as El Niño moves towards its expected peak later this year.

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