Countries Plan Fossil Fuel Surge Despite Paris Climate Agreement
Countries plan fossil fuel surge that defies Paris climate goals.
The Production Gap Report 2025, published by the Stockholm Environment Institute, the International Institute for Sustainable Development, and Climate Analytics, issued a stark warning: global governments are planning to produce 120% more coal, oil, and gas by 2030 than is consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, as outlined in the Paris Agreement. This production level also exceeds the 2-degree pathway by 77%, undermining the global commitment to transition away from fossil fuels, as reaffirmed at COP28 in Dubai in 2023.
Marking its 10th anniversary in 2025, the Paris Agreement set ambitious goals to cap global warming at 1.5°C and keep it well below 2°C. However, the report highlights a troubling trajectory, with governments planning increased coal production until 2035, gas production until 2050, and rising oil output through mid-century. This “collective failure,” the report warns, will necessitate steeper production cuts in the future to compensate for lost time, making the transition more challenging and costly.
The analysis, covering 20 major fossil fuel producers including India, the United States, China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Australia, reveals that 17 plan to increase output of at least one fossil fuel by 2030. Eleven countries anticipate higher production levels than projected two years ago. By 2030, coal production is expected to be 500% above the 1.5°C pathway, oil 31% higher, and gas 92% higher, defying scientific consensus. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emphasizes that global emissions must peak before 2025 and decline by 43% by 2030 to avert worsening climate impacts. A Nature study further underscores that 60% of oil and gas reserves and 90% of coal must remain unextracted to meet the 1.5°C target.
Also Read: Trump Plan to Deport 700 Guatemalan Children Faces Intense Criticism
Massive investments in new fossil fuel infrastructure and near-record-high subsidies, including tax incentives and public investments, are exacerbating this “fossil fuel lock-in.” The report notes that these commitments make future reductions more difficult and expensive, despite the International Court of Justice’s recent reaffirmation of the 1.5°C goal as a legal obligation under the Paris Agreement.
While some progress is evident—Germany advancing its coal phase-out, Brazil launching an energy transition program, China meeting its 2030 renewable energy target early, and Colombia adopting a Just Energy Transition roadmap—these efforts are overshadowed by major producers’ expansion plans. The United States, having revoked federal net-zero orders in 2025, is projected to significantly increase oil, gas, and coal output. India, with a 2070 net-zero target, plans higher near-term coal production, alongside Russia, Saudi Arabia, and China.
As nations prepare to submit updated climate pledges under the Paris Agreement in 2025, the report urges governments to integrate explicit fossil fuel production reduction plans into their national strategies. It also calls for enhanced global cooperation to ensure a just transition, warning that failure to act risks catastrophic climate consequences and undermines the global commitment to a sustainable future.
Also Read: Climate Health Crisis Could Cost Global Economy $1.5 Trillion by 2050
