Conflict in Iran Could Push Millions Across Borders, EU And Neighbouring States Warned

A potential conflict involving Iran could spark a large-scale refugee crisis, affecting neighbouring countries and potentially Europe, experts warn. With a population of around 90 million, even a modest proportion of displaced civilians could result in millions of people on the move, challenging humanitarian systems and regional stability. The European Union’s asylum agency has already cautioned that such a migration wave could reach “unprecedented magnitude.”

Historical precedents illustrate the potential scale of displacement. Past conflicts, including the Syrian Civil War and the Iraq War, pushed millions across borders, creating severe humanitarian and political pressures far beyond the battlefield. Analysts say Iran’s geographic location—at the crossroads of Central Asia, the Middle East, and South Asia—means refugees would likely first seek safety in neighbouring countries.

Turkey is expected to be a primary transit point, echoing the 2015 migration crisis when millions of Syrians crossed into Europe via the Balkan route. Turkey already hosts one of the world’s largest refugee populations, and a surge from Iran could again drive migrants toward the European Union through land and sea routes, particularly across the Aegean Sea.

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Iraq, sharing a long and porous border with Iran, would face immediate pressure. Displaced populations could move into Iraqi Kurdistan, northern cities, and border provinces, though the country’s fragile security situation limits its capacity to absorb large numbers. Similarly, Pakistan and Afghanistan could see cross-border flows. Millions live near the Iran-Pakistan border, and long-standing migration ties with Afghanistan make both countries vulnerable to humanitarian strain.

Several factors could trigger mass displacement, including airstrikes, infrastructure damage, economic collapse from sanctions, and internal instability. Even limited movements from Iran’s large population could overwhelm neighbouring nations’ resources. International agencies such as the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees would likely play a central role, though the global refugee system is already stretched by crises in Ukraine, Sudan, and Gaza.

In Europe, large migration flows often spark political debates. The 2015 migrant surge led to tightened border controls, overwhelmed asylum systems, and electoral impacts in multiple countries. A new wave stemming from conflict in Iran could revive similar challenges, reshaping migration policy, humanitarian response, and regional geopolitics across multiple continents.

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