Brent Oil Nears $103 As Hormuz Uncertainty Counters Rising Saudi Crude Supply Expectations

Brent crude prices remained above the $100-a-barrel mark on Wednesday as uncertainty surrounding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz offset signs of a recovery in Saudi Arabian crude exports. Brent crude was last trading 0.31% higher at $102.90 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down 0.1% at $89.28, according to Bloomberg data. The movement came a day after both benchmarks fell sharply as markets responded to improving oil flows from Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea export terminals.

Brent futures had declined 2.6% on Tuesday to settle at $102.59 a barrel, while WTI fell about 3.5% to close at $89.38. The decline followed signs that Saudi Arabia was restoring crude shipments after an attack earlier this month disrupted its East-West pipeline and affected exports through the Red Sea port of Yanbu. The recovery eased some concerns about the immediate impact of the disruption on global supplies, putting downward pressure on crude prices during Tuesday’s session.

Saudi Arabia’s supply recovery has gathered pace in recent days. Satellite imagery showed a major operational recovery at the Yanbu and Muajjiz terminals, while 12.5 million barrels were loaded onto nine tankers at Yanbu between Saturday and Monday, according to Kpler data cited in market reports. Flows through the East-West pipeline have also recovered to around 3.5 million barrels per day, although that remains below the pipeline’s maximum capacity of 7 million barrels per day. Saudi crude exports are expected to have reached their highest level since February this month as operations recover.

Also Read: Fresh Strait Of Hormuz Strikes Send Crude Prices 3% Higher, Brent Climbs Past $107 A Barrel

However, uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz continues to provide support to oil prices. The waterway remains a critical route for global energy supplies, and disruption to shipping through the strait has reduced the volume of crude moving through the region. Kpler data showed that oil flows through Hormuz had reached a seven-day average of 13.2 million barrels per day, equivalent to about 77% of the roughly 17 million barrels per day that passed through the waterway before the US-Iran war. The uncertainty surrounding when normal traffic could resume has kept traders focused on the potential impact on global supplies.

The situation has also complicated Saudi Arabia’s efforts to maintain crude exports through alternative routes. Saudi shipments through Hormuz increased to about 2.58 million barrels per day in September as attacks and threats by Yemen’s Houthi rebels disrupted the Red Sea route, according to preliminary Kpler data reported by The National. At the same time, flows through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait fell sharply. Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline provides an alternative route by transporting crude across the kingdom to Yanbu on the Red Sea, but the recent attack demonstrated the vulnerability of that infrastructure as well.

Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts surrounding the wider US-Iran conflict remain closely watched by oil markets. Iran has proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz within seven days under conditions including changes to the US blockade and a ceasefire, but the proposal has not resulted in a confirmed reopening agreement. The uncertainty means traders continue to balance signs of recovering Saudi supply against the possibility of prolonged disruption through a key global oil chokepoint. For now, Brent remains above $100 a barrel, with developments surrounding Hormuz and regional crude exports likely to remain central to price movements.

Also Read: EverBrands India Files DRHP For Rs 600-Crore IPO, Targets New Subway Stores