Bolivia’s Right-Wing Surge Threatens Leftist Rule
Polls open in Bolivia’s pivotal, unpredictable election.
Bolivians flocked to polling stations on Sunday for presidential and congressional elections that could end two decades of leftist dominance by the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party, potentially ushering in a right-wing government for the first time since 2005. With the nation grappling with its worst economic crisis in 40 years, the race remains a tight and unpredictable contest, led by right-wing candidates Samuel Doria Medina and Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga, who are neck-and-neck in polls.
The election’s outcome will shape Bolivia’s future, a country of 12 million with vast lithium and rare earth mineral reserves, amid soaring inflation, fuel shortages, and widespread frustration. Polls indicate that up to 30% of voters remain undecided, reflecting deep disillusionment with the political establishment. “There’s enthusiasm for change but no enthusiasm for the candidates,” said Eddy Abasto, a 44-year-old Tupperware vendor in La Paz, echoing sentiments of many torn between Doria Medina, a multimillionaire businessman, and Quiroga, a former president who served briefly in 2001–2002.
Doria Medina, leading the Unidad alliance, and Quiroga, of the Libre coalition, have capitalized on public discontent with the MAS, fractured by infighting between President Luis Arce and former President Evo Morales. Arce, facing plummeting popularity, opted not to run, nominating his minister Eduardo del Castillo, who polls below 3%. Morales, barred by the constitutional court from a fourth term and facing charges related to an alleged relationship with a minor, has called for supporters to cast null votes, potentially disrupting the race.
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Both Doria Medina and Quiroga advocate aggressive economic reforms, including slashing fuel and food subsidies, privatizing state firms, and opening Bolivia to foreign investment in its lithium sector. They’ve praised the Trump administration and vowed to restore U.S. ties, severed in 2008, while eyeing partnerships with Israel and distancing Bolivia from allies like Venezuela, China, and Russia. These policies align with a regional shift toward right-wing leaders like Argentina’s Javier Milei, whose austerity measures Doria Medina cites as a model.
However, their proposed austerity measures have sparked concerns. Kathryn Ledebur, director of the Andean Information Network, warned that a right-wing victory could lead to “violent crackdowns” on protests from Indigenous and impoverished communities, who rely on subsidies and fear foreign exploitation of resources. The election also coincides with a fragmented MAS, with Senate President Andrónico Rodríguez, a former Morales ally, polling at 6–12% with a focus on rural voters.
With 7.9 million eligible voters and mandatory voting, the election will also decide all 130 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 36 in the Senate. If no candidate secures 50% or 40% with a 10-point lead, a historic runoff—the first since Bolivia’s 1982 return to democracy—will occur on October 19. Analysts like Daniel Lansberg-Rodriguez describe Bolivia as a “situational tinderbox,” with economic fragility and rural-urban divides fueling polarization. As voters cast their ballots, the nation stands at a crossroads, balancing the promise of change against the risk of unrest.
