Bangladesh’s Fragile Transition: A Year After Hasina’s Fall, Stability Remains Elusive

One year after a student-led uprising forced former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to flee to India, ending her 15-year authoritarian rule, Bangladesh remains mired in political turmoil. The violent protests, sparked by a controversial job quota system in July 2024, claimed over 1,400 lives, including 23-year-old Meherunnesa, killed by a stray bullet in Dhaka on August 5, 2024. Her brother, Abdur Rahman Tarif, 20, recalls the day their hopes for a freer Bangladesh turned to grief: “We wanted a country without discrimination and injustice, but I’m frustrated now.” The nation, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus’s interim government since August 8, 2024, faces mounting challenges in delivering the promised democratic reforms, with rising communal violence, political vendettas, and an uncertain path to elections threatening to unravel the “second liberation.”

The uprising, initially a student protest against a reinstated 30% job quota for descendants of 1971 war veterans, escalated into a nationwide anti-government movement. Hasina’s brutal crackdown, which killed nearly 300 people, including 90 in a single day, backfired, prompting the military to withdraw support. Army Chief General Waker-uz-Zaman announced her resignation as protesters stormed her residence, forcing her to flee to India. Yunus, sworn in as interim leader, promised to restore order and hold elections after implementing reforms. However, a year later, Bangladesh grapples with a fractured political landscape, economic woes, and growing unrest.

Stalled Reforms and Political Discord

Yunus’s administration formed 11 reform commissions to overhaul the electoral system, judiciary, and security sectors, but progress is slow. The National Consensus Commission, tasked with coordinating with parties like the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the student-led National Citizen Party, has failed to agree on an election timeline. The BNP, led by former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, demands polls by February 2026, while Yunus proposes April, citing the need for systemic changes. The student party insists on a constitutional rewrite, further delaying elections. “People expected a focused push for electoral reform, but it’s a missed opportunity,” said political analyst Nazmul Ahsan Kalimullah.

Also Read: Jet Crash that Killed 34: Bangladesh Scrambles to Uncover Truth!

The interim government’s decision to lift bans on Islamist groups, including Jamaat-e-Islami, has raised alarms. The release of hardline Islamists from prison and a massive Jamaat rally in Dhaka signal their growing influence, which critics fear could radicalize the political sphere. “The rise of Islamists could pit disciplined religious forces against liberal and moderate ones,” Kalimullah warned. Meanwhile, the banned Awami League (AL) claims over two dozen supporters have died in custody, with many others in hiding due to alleged targeted detentions by the interim government. Human Rights Watch reported on July 30, 2025, that arbitrary arrests of AL members echo the repression of Hasina’s era, undermining Yunus’s reformist agenda.

Communal Tensions and Regional Strains

Violence against minorities, particularly Hindus (8% of the population), has surged, with over 2,200 reported attacks by December 2024, including temple desecrations and the arrest of Hindu leader Chinmoy Krishna Das. These incidents have strained ties with India, which sheltered Hasina after her ouster. Bangladesh’s interim government has demanded her extradition for trials on charges of crimes against humanity, linked to the 2024 protest crackdowns. India’s reluctance to comply, coupled with Hasina’s inflammatory remarks from exile, has fueled anti-India sentiment, culminating in a December 2024 attack on Bangladesh’s diplomatic mission in Agartala. The Yunus administration downplays the violence as politically motivated, but India’s concerns about rising Islamist influence and a potential BNP-Jamaat coalition threaten regional stability.

Economic and Social Challenges

Bangladesh’s economy, once a South Asian success story with 6.6% GDP growth pre-COVID, faces high inflation (9.73% in 2023-24) and a $240 billion illicit financial outflow during Hasina’s tenure. The garment industry, accounting for 83% of exports, saw a 13% export rise in late 2024, but youth unemployment and inequality persist, fueling discontent. The interim government’s reform agenda includes tackling corruption and rebuilding institutions like the police and judiciary, hollowed out under Hasina. Yet, public frustration grows, with citizens like Meherunnesa’s father, Mosharraf Hossain, lamenting, “It’s been 54 years since independence, yet freedom was not achieved.”

A Nation at a Crossroads

For many, like Tarif, the dream of a Bangladesh free from discrimination and enforced disappearances feels distant. The interim government enjoys initial legitimacy from the uprising but risks losing support without tangible progress. The U.S., once critical of Hasina’s regime, sees an opportunity to engage with Yunus’s administration, while China and Pakistan eye closer ties with a post-Hasina government. As the July Revolution’s anniversary approaches, Bangladesh faces a pivotal moment: deliver democratic reforms or risk sliding into deeper instability, potentially with military or Islamist influence. “The hope of thousands remains unfulfilled,” said Meenakshi Ganguly of Human Rights Watch, urging the government to prioritize rights and inclusivity to avoid another cycle of repression.

Also Read: Monsoon Session: India Tracks Attacks on Bangladesh Minorities