Asteroid 2024 YR4 on Course for Possible 2032 Moon Impact, Raising Earth Risks
60-metre rock carries 4% collision chance, threatening satellites.
Astronomers worldwide are tracking asteroid 2024 YR4, a roughly 60-metre-wide near-Earth object that currently holds about a 4 percent probability of striking the Moon on December 22, 2032. Although the odds are still low, an actual impact would rank as one of the most significant lunar collisions recorded in modern history, releasing energy equivalent to a medium-sized thermonuclear explosion.
A recent preprint study led by Yifan He from Tsinghua University, published on arXiv, explores both the scientific windfall and the potential hazards of such an event. Should the asteroid hit, it would excavate a crater approximately one kilometre in diameter and generate a magnitude-5 global moonquake. These effects would offer unprecedented data on the Moon’s internal structure—information that has remained elusive despite decades of lunar exploration.
The collision would violently eject massive quantities of lunar regolith and rock fragments into space. Simulations indicate that some of this debris could reach Earth’s vicinity days later, producing an extraordinary meteor shower potentially visible to the naked eye. Peak activity could deliver millions of meteors per hour, with especially vivid displays forecast over South America, North Africa, and the Arabian Peninsula.
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Yet the spectacle comes with serious downsides. High-velocity fragments entering Earth orbit could endanger operational satellites, raising the spectre of Kessler Syndrome—a cascading collision scenario that might severely impair global communication networks, navigation services, weather monitoring, and other satellite-reliant infrastructure. While widespread surface damage on Earth remains unlikely due to atmospheric filtering and dispersion, larger pieces could still pose localized risks.
In response to these concerns, international space agencies are actively debating whether to attempt deflection of the asteroid using techniques demonstrated by NASA’s DART mission. Any decision would weigh the imperative of planetary protection against the unique opportunity to witness and study a natural high-energy lunar impact up close.
Ongoing observations over the next several years will refine the trajectory and impact probability, guiding whether preventive action becomes necessary or whether humanity can safely observe this rare astronomical event.
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