A Fly on The Wall - Ukraine and Russia’s Ceasefire: Demands, Concessions, and Red Lines
With President Donald Trump set to speak with Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, March 18, The Indian Witness draws up both sides’ entrenched demands and red lines - and compare all that threatens to derail a longer-term peace plan.
As the White House signals a potential breakthrough in Russia’s war on Ukraine—now in its third year—a 30-day ceasefire proposed by the U.S. hangs in the balance, contingent on Moscow’s acceptance. With President Donald Trump set to speak with Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, March 18, The Indian Witness looks at both sides’ entrenched demands and red lines threatening to derail a longer-term peace plan, despite hints of flexibility on divisive issues like territory and assets.
Russia’s Demands
Since launching its full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, Putin has insisted Ukraine abandon NATO ambitions, slash its military, and safeguard Russian language and culture—aims meant to keep Kyiv within Moscow’s sphere. Post-2022, he’s escalated demands, requiring Ukraine to cede the four regions Russia illegally annexed—Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson—despite not fully controlling them. Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov told U.S. National Security Adviser Mike Waltz last week that Moscow sees the ceasefire as a mere “reprieve” unless it secures these territories permanently.
Putin also seeks the release of over $300 billion in frozen Russian assets and sanctions relief, a point Trump has floated as negotiable. He frames NATO’s eastward expansion as the conflict’s “root cause,” rejecting NATO peacekeepers and questioning Zelenskyy’s legitimacy—claims Trump has mirrored by suggesting Ukraine hold elections, impossible under martial law. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova reiterated Monday that Moscow won’t rush, prioritizing battlefield gains over a pause that could aid Ukraine’s rearmament.
Ukraine’s Demands
Reeling from front-line losses, Ukraine has softened its stance on reclaiming pre-2014 borders, lacking the military muscle to do so. Zelenskyy now prioritizes ironclad security guarantees to deter future Russian aggression, a demand unmet by Trump’s refusal to back NATO membership. Instead, France and Britain are crafting a “coalition of the willing” for European-led monitoring and retaliation if Russia strikes again—a framework Kyiv sees as vital.
Ukraine demands a robust arsenal to counter Russia, alongside rebuilding its arms industry to reduce reliance on faltering Western aid. Zelenskyy insists on no further territorial losses beyond the 20% Russia holds, plus the return of 19,000 abducted children and thousands of detained civilians—non-negotiable humanitarian pleas. “We need strength to hold the line,” he said Sunday, eyeing a stockpile to offset Moscow’s advantage.
Concessions and Red Lines
Negotiations face a deadlock over mutually exclusive red lines. Russia’s refusal of NATO or Western peacekeepers clashes with Ukraine’s need for credible security, while Kyiv’s rejection of territorial concessions grates against Moscow’s annexation claims. Trump’s mention of dividing “land and power plants” hints at asset swaps—possibly Ukraine’s nuclear infrastructure for sanctions relief—but details remain vague.
Moscow shows little willingness to concede, banking on its 2024 battlefield edge, including reclaiming Kursk areas from Ukraine’s August incursion. Putin’s insistence on addressing “root causes” suggests maximalist terms, like demilitarization, that Kyiv deems surrender. Ukraine, though weaker, might tacitly accept a de facto Russian hold on occupied lands—mirroring Cold War Baltic precedents—while refusing de jure recognition. “Partners know our red lines,” Zelenskyy told reporters last week. “We won’t legitimize this occupation—it violates our Constitution and international law.”
Kyiv also resists caps on its military or alliance options, fearing a neutered state ripe for Russian redux. Trump’s push for concessions, as White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt noted Monday—“We’re on the 10th yard line of peace”—may pressure Ukraine to yield ground, but public support for such a deal is shaky; a February Kyiv International Institute poll showed 67% trust in Zelenskyy yet firm opposition to ceding sovereignty.
Outlook
With Trump’s Tuesday call looming, both sides signal openness to a pause but dig in on core issues. Russia might concede minor sanctions relief if Ukraine exits Kursk, while Kyiv could stomach temporary territorial losses for European guarantees—yet neither budges on NATO or permanent borders. As Zelenskyy warns of Putin’s delay tactics, the ceasefire’s fate rests on whether Trump’s leverage, via sanctions threats or asset talks, can bridge this chasm, or if battlefield realities dictate a prolonged stalemate.
