Typhoon Dolphin's Pacific Impact Linked to Weakening Indian Monsoon

Typhoon Dolphin’s landfall in eastern China has coincided with atmospheric conditions that could weaken India’s monsoon despite the storm being nearly 4,000 kilometres away. The cyclone struck near Yuhuan in Zhejiang province on August 9 with sustained winds of about 151kmph, prompting the evacuation of more than one million people.

The typhoon is not directly drawing rain away from India. Instead, it forms part of a broader period of intense weather activity across the tropical and western Pacific. Multiple developing systems can alter large-scale atmospheric circulation connecting the Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean and South Asian monsoon region.

El Nino-like conditions can shift tropical convection and rising air eastwards towards the Pacific. This may change the Walker circulation and atmospheric waves reaching the Indian Ocean, potentially suppressing cloud development and weakening the processes responsible for producing India’s organised rain-bearing systems.

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The effects could be particularly important over the Bay of Bengal, where many monsoon low-pressure systems develop. Reduced cloud cover has been observed across parts of India and the Bay, while fewer organised weather systems have recently formed to sustain widespread rainfall over the country.

However, increased Pacific activity does not always weaken the Indian monsoon. Disturbances originating in the western North Pacific can move westwards and help generate low-pressure systems over the Bay of Bengal. Research indicates that more than one-third of monsoon low-pressure systems may develop through downstream amplification of Pacific disturbances.

The situation therefore depends on how the wider circulation evolves rather than on Typhoon Dolphin alone. Meteorologists will be watching whether Pacific disturbances help form a fresh low-pressure system over the Bay of Bengal or whether the unfavourable El Nino-like pattern continues to suppress convection and restrict India’s monsoon rainfall.

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