Trump Claims India is Cutting Back on Russian Oil Amid China Deal Push

US President Donald Trump reiterated on Saturday his claim that India is "completely cutting back" on Russian oil imports, linking the assertion to recent American sanctions on major Russian producers Rosneft and Lukoil. Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One en route to Asia, Trump stated, "China is cutting back very substantially on the purchase of Russian oil, and India is cutting back completely, and we've done sanctions." The comments, made amid escalating US efforts to curb Moscow's war funding through energy revenues, come despite data showing India's Russian crude imports holding steady at around 1.8 million barrels per day in October—up from September and accounting for 34% of its total oil supply. New Delhi has repeatedly emphasised that its energy decisions prioritise national interest and market conditions over external pressures.

The White House has framed the sanctions, announced this week, as a direct response to Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine, now in its fourth year, by targeting entities responsible for over half of Moscow's seaborne oil exports. Indian refiners, including state-owned giants like Indian Oil Corporation and private player Reliance Industries, have begun reviewing contracts with the sanctioned firms to avoid secondary US penalties, potentially leading to a sharp drop in purchases by year's end.

However, industry trackers like Kpler report no immediate reductions, with October volumes rebounding to robust levels fuelled by discounted Russian grades. Trump's repeated assertions—first voiced in mid-October—have drawn pushback from India's Ministry of External Affairs, which denied any formal pledge to halt imports and highlighted diversification efforts rather than outright cessation. The issue has strained bilateral ties, exacerbating a 50% US tariff on Indian exports imposed in August partly over Russian oil purchases.

Trump's remarks also spotlighted his optimism for a "complete deal" with China during an upcoming meeting with President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea. "I may be discussing it," Trump said of Russian oil with Xi, adding that he anticipates a comprehensive trade agreement addressing tariffs, soybeans, and potentially nuclear arms limitations. The talks, set against Beijing's recent curbs on rare earth exports critical for US tech and defence, could ease ongoing disputes that have halved US agricultural sales to China and prompted threats of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods by November 1. Trump downplayed Taiwan tensions as a barrier, insisting China shows the US "great respect" and that a "fantastic deal" is within reach.

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As Trump embarks on his first major Asia tour since reclaiming office, the dual focus on energy sanctions and trade pacts underscores a high-stakes diplomatic push to reshape global supply chains and isolate Russia economically. While India's actual import trends suggest gradual recalibration rather than a full cutoff, the sanctions' ripple effects could tighten global oil markets and elevate prices, impacting consumers worldwide. Success with China might bolster US leverage in these negotiations, but failure risks further escalation in an already volatile geopolitical landscape.

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