Iran War's Hidden Cost: Fertilizer Shortage Threatens Crops, Food Prices And Farmer Livelihoods Globally

A sharp escalation in the ongoing conflict involving Iran has triggered a global fertiliser shortage, raising concerns over food security and rising agricultural costs worldwide. The disruption is being linked to Tehran’s near shutdown of the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz following military tensions involving the United States and Israel.

The crisis has led to a surge in natural gas prices, a key input in fertiliser production, while also constricting supply chains from Gulf nations. As a result, farmers across continents are facing reduced availability of fertilisers just as crucial planting seasons begin in many regions.

Experts warn that the shortage could significantly impact crop yields, particularly in developing countries already grappling with climate-related challenges such as rising temperatures and erratic rainfall patterns. The situation could ultimately translate into higher food prices globally.

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According to Carl Skau, deputy executive director of the World Food Programme, the timing of the shortage is especially concerning. “In the worst case, this means lower yields and crop failures next season. In the best case, higher input costs will be included in food prices next year,” he said.

Farmers in regions heavily dependent on fertiliser imports from the Gulf are expected to be the worst affected. Many small-scale farmers lack the financial capacity to absorb rising costs, putting their livelihoods at serious risk.

In India, for instance, farmers have expressed concern over affordability ahead of peak demand. A Punjab-based farmer warned that smallholders — who form the backbone of the agricultural sector — may struggle to survive unless government support, including subsidies, is strengthened. The unfolding crisis highlights the fragile link between geopolitical tensions and global food systems.

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