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New START Nuclear Arms Pact Between US and Russia Expires on February 5

Expiration of New START removes caps on US and Russian strategic nuclear warheads, raising arms race fears.

The United States and Russia have entered an uncertain phase in their strategic relationship following the expiration of a key nuclear arms control agreement, raising fresh concerns about global security and the future of nuclear restraint. The lapse of the pact removes one of the last remaining pillars regulating the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals at a time of heightened geopolitical tension.

The treaty, which placed limits on deployed strategic nuclear warheads and delivery systems while allowing mutual inspections, had long been viewed as a cornerstone of strategic stability between Washington and Moscow. Its expiration means that, for the first time in decades, there are no binding, verifiable limits governing the size and deployment of US and Russian nuclear forces.

US officials have warned that the absence of the agreement could lead to increased mistrust and the risk of miscalculation, particularly amid strained diplomatic ties over conflicts such as the war in Ukraine. American policymakers have said they remain open to dialogue on arms control but argue that meaningful negotiations require a stable security environment and reciprocal commitments from Russia.

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Moscow, for its part, has accused Washington of undermining the broader framework of arms control through sanctions and military support for Ukraine. Russian officials have maintained that any future negotiations must account for what they describe as “new realities” in global security, including the role of US allies and emerging weapons technologies.

Experts caution that the end of the pact could accelerate a renewed nuclear arms race, with both countries free to expand their arsenals or deploy new systems without transparency. The loss of inspection mechanisms also reduces insight into each side’s capabilities, increasing the chances of suspicion and escalation during crises.

As the treaty era fades, analysts say rebuilding an arms control framework will be difficult but essential. With no immediate replacement agreement in sight, the expiration marks a pivotal moment for international security, underscoring the growing challenge of managing nuclear risks in an increasingly fragmented global order.

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