Monsoon Likely to Miss Kerala's June 1 Date; Below-Normal Rain Forecast Nationwide

The southwest monsoon is likely to arrive in Kerala later than its normal onset date of June 1, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). While weather conditions remain favorable for the monsoon’s advance toward southern India, current indications suggest that the seasonal rains may miss their scheduled arrival over Kerala by a few days. The onset over Kerala is considered the official beginning of the southwest monsoon season across the country and is closely monitored by meteorologists, farmers, and policymakers.

The IMD noted on Saturday that conditions are becoming increasingly conducive for the further advance of the monsoon into southern peninsular India, including Kerala and Tamil Nadu, during the coming week. The weather agency stated that the monsoon is expected to progress into additional parts of the southwest and southeast Arabian Sea, the Lakshadweep Islands, and several regions of the Bay of Bengal over the next four to five days. However, the exact date of its arrival over Kerala remains uncertain.

The normal onset date of the southwest monsoon over Kerala is June 1, with a permissible variation of up to seven days. While occasional delays or early arrivals are common, the timing of the onset is significant because it influences agricultural planning, water resource management, and seasonal weather forecasts across the country. A delayed onset does not necessarily indicate weaker monsoon performance, as rainfall distribution and intensity during the season are equally important factors.

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Meanwhile, forecasts indicate that all-India rainfall during the 2026 southwest monsoon season is expected to remain below normal. The southwest monsoon contributes nearly 70 percent of India’s annual rainfall and plays a crucial role in supporting agriculture, replenishing reservoirs, and sustaining economic activity. Weather experts will continue to monitor atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the coming days as the monsoon edges closer to the Indian mainland.

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