India's Housing Boom Stutters: Mumbai & Pune Sales Plunge 28%

India's residential real estate sector, a powerhouse of post-pandemic recovery, faces a seasonal slowdown as housing sales in the top nine cities are projected to decline by 4% to 1,00,370 units in the July-September quarter, according to data analytics firm PropEquity. The anticipated drop from 1,05,081 units in the same period last year is attributed to subdued demand in Mumbai, Navi Mumbai, Thane, and Pune—regions battered by heavy monsoons and the inauspicious Shraadh period, traditionally a lean time for property transactions.

PropEquity's analysis of the primary residential market highlights a tale of two Indias: western markets grappling with external pressures, while southern and northern hubs thrive on robust economic momentum. In Thane, sales are expected to nosedive 28% to 14,877 units from 20,620 units year-on-year, reflecting oversupply and buyer caution amid rising interest rates.

Mumbai's core market anticipates an 8% contraction to 9,691 units (down from 10,480), while Navi Mumbai sees a 6% dip to 7,212 units (from 7,650). Pune, a former hotspot for IT-driven demand, faces a steep 16% fall to 17,762 units from 21,066, as flooding disrupts site visits and financing.

Conversely, Bengaluru's market is set to buck the trend with a stellar 21% growth to 16,840 units (up from 13,966), fueled by the city's tech ecosystem and influx of young professionals. Hyderabad's sales could climb 4% to 12,860 units (from 12,311), supported by expanding pharma and IT sectors. Delhi-NCR is poised for a 4% uptick to 10,990 units (from 10,539), with end-users and investors viewing properties as safe havens amid economic uncertainties. Chennai anticipates 16% growth to 5,406 units (from 4,675), while Kolkata rounds out the positives with a 25% surge to 4,732 units (up from 3,774), driven by infrastructure upgrades and affordable pricing.

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New supply remains steady at over 92,000 units, flat from last year, signaling developer restraint amid softening absorption rates. Samir Jasuja, Founder and CEO of PropEquity, remains optimistic: "The housing market remains healthy, even as new launches decline consecutively, because sales continue to outpace supply. This balance underscores sustained buyer interest in quality assets."

Industry leaders echoed this resilience. Aakash Ohri, Joint MD and Chief Business Officer of DLF Home Developers, noted, "NCR's steady growth, led by end-users and long-term investors, treats homes as a secure asset class in volatile times." In Bengaluru, Darshan Govindaraju, Executive Director of Vaishnavi Group, attributed the surge to "robust homebuyer demand, rising investor confidence, and expanding economic opportunities." Rajat Khandelwal, CEO of Tribeca Developers Group, added, "For quality developments in prime locations, buyer conviction remains sky-high, insulating them from broader slowdowns."

PropEquity, a subsidiary of NSE-listed P.E Analytics Ltd, aggregates data from over 1.7 lakh projects by more than 57,000 developers across 44 Indian cities. Their insights, powered by AI-driven analytics, reveal deeper trends: average property prices have risen 12% year-on-year in high-growth markets like Bengaluru and Hyderabad, while inventory levels in Mumbai-Thane have eased by 15%, potentially setting the stage for price corrections. The quarter's performance will be pivotal, as festive Diwali demand could rebound sales in Q4, but persistent inflation and RBI's steady repo rate at 6.5% may temper enthusiasm.

As India's urban population swells toward 600 million by 2030, the sector's resilience hinges on affordability and infrastructure. With government initiatives like PMAY 2.0 targeting 1 crore more homes, experts predict a V-shaped recovery, but warn that western markets must innovate with green certifications and flexible financing to reclaim momentum. PropEquity's forecast serves as a reality check, reminding stakeholders that while the boom persists, regional disparities could redefine the national narrative.

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