Goldman Sachs: India Fastest-Growing Steel Market Despite Surging Global Prices

India’s steel market continues to expand rapidly, even as global steel prices surge and production dynamics shift across major economies, according to a recent report by Goldman Sachs. The report highlights India’s increasing role as one of the fastest-growing steel producers in the world, driven by sustained demand and rising output.

India’s crude steel production rose 11% year-on-year in March 2026, up from 10% in the first half of the year and 7% in February, underscoring steady growth in domestic steel manufacturing. By contrast, China’s steel output remained under pressure, with the country’s production declining 3.2% year-on-year in early May due to delayed implementation of capacity limits and slower-than-expected compliance with long-term production discipline plans.

Global steel prices have been on the rise, with average hot rolled coil (HRC) prices increasing across most major regions in April. Brazil led with a 10% month-over-month increase, followed by Japan at 6.5% and China at 2.9%. On a year-to-date basis, Brazil’s HRC prices rose 21%, the highest among surveyed regions, while the United States saw a 15% increase. Other markets reported increases ranging from 6% to 13%, reflecting broad-based global price pressure.

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Long steel prices also showed a notable upward trend in April, with Brazil recording a 12% increase in rebar prices month-over-month. Europe and the Black Sea region followed with 6.9% and 6.1% increases, respectively. Europe’s crude steel production rose 16% month-over-month in March, though it remained down 3% year-over-year. The US saw a 3% monthly rise in weekly steel production, while utilisation rates globally averaged 79.6%, showing both sequential and annual improvement.

Despite challenges in China’s real estate sector, infrastructure spending remained robust. Goldman Sachs reported an 8.9% year-over-year increase in Chinese infrastructure expenditure during the first quarter of 2026, excluding water and power supply projects. While construction activity fell in March, manufacturing activity picked up, indicating uneven demand trends across steel-consuming industries.

Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs predicts that steel prices in major international markets will remain relatively steady for the rest of 2026. The report expects US steel prices to remain higher than those in Europe, China, and Brazil, reflecting continued strong demand and supply-side constraints in key global markets.

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