Imperial College Researchers Develop VeloCD Test To Predict Illness Progression

A new study suggests that a blood test could help doctors predict how a patient’s illness may progress and how they might respond to treatment, potentially offering a major advance in personalised healthcare. The research focuses on a testing method called “VeloCD,” which analyses gene activity patterns in blood to forecast disease outcomes. Scientists say the approach could help identify whether a patient is likely to recover quickly or experience worsening symptoms.

The study, led by researchers at Imperial College London, demonstrated that the VeloCD method could predict disease trajectories in multiple scenarios. These included children with acute fever who either recovered or deteriorated, as well as healthy adults exposed to flu or COVID-19 viruses. The findings were published in the journal Nature Communications and are described as a proof-of-concept for future clinical applications.

According to the researchers, the test works by measuring RNA markers in the blood, which reflect how genes are switched on or off in response to infection or illness. These gene expression patterns can indicate not only the cause of disease but also its likely progression. By studying these molecular signals, scientists can estimate whether a patient’s condition is improving or worsening over time.

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The team adapted a technique known as “RNA velocity,” originally used to study changes in single cells, and applied it to whole blood samples. This allowed them to observe whether gene activity was increasing or decreasing without requiring repeated blood tests over time. Researchers said this method provides a snapshot of biological changes that can predict future clinical states, including severity of illness or likelihood of recovery.

Senior author Aubrey Cunnington said the approach could significantly improve patient care by helping doctors make faster and more accurate treatment decisions. He noted that such a test could assist in triaging patients by identifying those who may need urgent intervention versus those likely to recover without intensive treatment. This could ensure that healthcare resources are allocated more effectively.

The researchers emphasised that the method, called VeloCD, was able to predict disease progression from a single blood sample. In controlled studies involving influenza A and SARS-CoV-2 infections, the technique successfully forecasted whether individuals would develop mild or severe illness. While still in early stages, scientists believe the approach could eventually be developed into a practical clinical tool for managing infectious diseases and improving treatment outcomes.

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