Climate Impact Lab Predicts Rising Heat-Related Mortality in Poor Countries

Heat, rather than floods or storms, may emerge as the deadliest consequence of climate change, with poorer and hotter regions bearing the brunt, according to a new report by the Climate Impact Lab. The study warns that rising temperatures could significantly increase mortality in vulnerable populations worldwide if urgent adaptation measures are not implemented.

The report notes that cooler regions, such as Scandinavia, may actually see a decline in temperature-related deaths—potentially dropping by more than 70 deaths per 100,000 people—as milder winters reduce fatalities. In contrast, hotter regions, including Northern Africa, the Middle East, and Southwest Asia, could experience substantial increases in heat-related deaths.

For instance, the Sahel region, encompassing countries like Niger and Burkina Faso, may face more than 60 additional deaths per 100,000 people, surpassing Africa’s current malaria death rate. In Pakistan, heat-related mortality could rise by 51 deaths per 100,000 people by 2050. The report emphasizes that poorer nations are disproportionately affected, largely due to limited resources for adaptation. Lower-income countries could see roughly 391,000 deaths annually from rising temperatures, compared to about 39,000 in wealthier nations.

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Regional disparities are also pronounced. Djibouti, despite sharing a similar climate with Kuwait, is projected to face a 55-death-per-100,000 increase in heat-related mortality, comparable to its current HIV/AIDS death rate. By contrast, Kuwait could see an increase of only 25 deaths per 100,000, less than half the nation’s heart disease mortality. Cities in hotter, lower-income countries face even greater risks—Faisalabad in Pakistan alone could see 9,400 additional deaths annually, while wealthier cities such as Phoenix and Madrid are projected to experience about 600 and 525 extra deaths per year, respectively.

The study further highlights variation within countries. In the United States, northern states and the Rocky Mountains may see fewer deaths, whereas southern regions could experience increases. In Bolivia, cooler mountainous areas may face fewer deaths, while warmer lowlands in the southeast could see roughly 30 additional deaths per 100,000 people.

“Temperature-related deaths are an inequitable threat to human well-being,” the report concluded. It called for targeted adaptation efforts in the most vulnerable regions and cities to mitigate the impact of rising heat, emphasizing that such measures could save thousands of lives across a range of possible climate futures.

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