China-Iran Alliance Could Control Strait of Hormuz? Market Expert Warns

Rising geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have triggered fresh concerns about global energy security, with some experts warning of a possible shift in power dynamics involving China and Iran. The narrow waterway, through which a significant portion of the world’s oil supply passes, has once again become the focal point of international attention amid escalating rhetoric and strategic manoeuvring.

The latest alarm has been sounded by market expert Saurabh Mukherjea, who suggested that China could deepen its alliance with Iran and potentially seek greater control over the Strait. According to him, such a move would give Beijing enormous leverage over global oil flows, marking what he described as a “terrific coup” in the broader contest for geopolitical influence.

Tensions were further inflamed by statements from former US President Donald Trump, who issued a sharp warning to Tehran, calling for the reopening of the Strait. In response, Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf pushed back strongly, accusing Washington of reckless escalation and warning of severe consequences for American actions in the region.

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Beyond the immediate war of words, analysts believe the situation reflects a deeper and more prolonged struggle for strategic dominance. Mukherjea emphasized that the conflict is not a short-term flare-up but part of a sustained tussle over energy routes and geopolitical influence, one that could persist for months or even longer.

China’s growing footprint in the Gulf adds weight to these concerns. Over the past decade, Beijing has significantly increased its dependence on Middle Eastern oil, while simultaneously expanding investments in ports, pipelines, and infrastructure across the region. Its long-term strategic agreement with Iran and continued imports of discounted Iranian crude—despite sanctions—highlight an evolving partnership that could reshape regional power equations.

Experts like Abdullah Baabood note that while China may not yet match the military presence of the United States in the Gulf, shifting American engagement and regional balancing by Gulf nations are opening new opportunities for Beijing to expand its influence. This gradual shift, they argue, is less about sudden takeover and more about steady, strategic positioning.

For India, the stakes are particularly high. Mukherjea warned that even before the current tensions, the Indian economy was showing signs of strain. A prolonged disruption in oil supplies or sustained high prices could lead to a weaker rupee, rising interest rates, and increased pressure on consumption and corporate earnings.

As the situation unfolds, the Strait of Hormuz remains a critical flashpoint—one where geopolitics, energy security, and economic stability intersect. While fears of a dramatic “coup” may still be speculative, the underlying shifts in alliances and influence suggest that the global energy landscape could be entering a period of significant transformation.

Also Read: Trump Sets April 6 as Final Deadline For Iran to Reopen Strait of Hormuz or Face Strikes