ICICI Bank Forecasts Gold at $5,000 Per Ounce by 2026; Rs 1.9 Lakh Critical in India

Gold prices are expected to remain volatile in the near term amid geopolitical tensions in West Asia and a strengthening US dollar, even as structural factors continue to support a longer-term bullish outlook, according to a recent report by ICICI Bank Economic Research Group. The report noted that gold, after a sharp rally in 2025, has faced selling pressure following the escalation of conflict in West Asia. Analysts attributed the recent weakness primarily to a stronger US dollar, which has increased pressure on non-dollar assets, including bullion, leading to a notable correction from recent highs.

ICICI Bank said international gold prices are likely to trade in the range of $4,400 to $4,600 per ounce in the near term. However, it also warned that prices could fall toward $4,200 per ounce if geopolitical tensions ease further or if global financial conditions shift in favour of the dollar. Despite short-term volatility, the report maintained a positive medium- to long-term outlook for gold. It cited concerns over rising global public debt, questions around the US dollar’s reserve currency dominance, expansionary fiscal policies, and continued central bank buying as key structural factors supporting bullion demand.

The bank projected that global gold prices could rise to between $4,800 and $5,000 per ounce by the end of 2026, and potentially reach $5,400 to $5,600 per ounce by the end of 2027. It also noted that aggressive monetary tightening by major central banks, particularly the US Federal Reserve, could limit upside potential by keeping bond yields elevated. On the domestic front, the report highlighted that gold prices in India have already risen significantly in 2026, driven by rupee depreciation, higher global prices, and increased import duties. It estimated that domestic prices could trade between ₹1.5 lakh and ₹1.8 lakh per 10 grams for the remainder of the year.

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ICICI Bank added that in a stronger bullish scenario, Indian gold prices could move toward ₹1.6 lakh to ₹1.9 lakh per 10 grams, tracking global trends and currency fluctuations. The report also observed that India’s gold imports surged sharply in April, even as overall volumes moderated due to elevated price levels. It further noted a slowdown in gold exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows during March and April compared to earlier strong inflow trends, indicating cautious investor behaviour amid heightened price volatility and global economic uncertainty.

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